This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and  local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data  sources and application techniques within each of three classes of  projection methods (cohort-component, trend extrapolation, and  structural models) and covers the components of population growth, the  formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and  the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and  weaknesses of various projection methods, paying special attention to  the unique problems of making projections for small areas, and closes  with an examination of technological and methodological changes  affecting the production of small-area population projections.   The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, and  other analysts called on to construct state and local population  projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present  suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique  circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data; they also describe  techniques for controlling one set of projections to another and for  interpolating between two projections. They discuss the role of  judgment and the importance of the political context in which  projections are made. They emphasize the ''utility'' of projections, or  their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands  and limited resources.   This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not  only of the mechanics of commonly used population projection methods,  but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction,  interpretation, evaluation, and use.

State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis PDF

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